IB survival

How IB predicted grades work — and how to move yours

13 July 2026 · 5 min read · by the Xero team

Predicted grades decide which universities you can realistically apply to, and yet most students discover how they work only after theirs are set. Here's the mechanism — and the parts of it you can still influence.

Who sets them, from what

Your subject teachers predict your final IB grade, per subject, based on evidence: tests, mocks, IA drafts, classwork trajectory. Schools differ in formality — some average recent assessments, some weight mocks heavily, some leave it to judgment — but every version leans on the same thing: your most recent credible evidence under exam conditions.That's usually mocks.

When they matter

• UK (UCAS): predictions go on the application itself — deadlines typically mid-October (Oxbridge/medicine) or late January. Offers are made largely on predictions, then confirmed by results.
• Netherlands, much of the EU: predictions matter less for admission but often gate program requirements; finals dominate.
• US: transcripts and school reports carry the predictions; they contextualize rigor rather than gate offers directly.

Work out your earliest application deadline, then find out when your school finalizes predictions — commonly early autumn of DP2. Everything before that date is your window.

How to actually move a prediction

• Treat the DP1 end-of-year exams and DP2 mocks as the real thing. These are the data points teachers cite when defending a prediction. One strong mock outweighs a term of decent homework.
• Make the trajectory visible. Teachers predict trend lines, not averages. A 4 → 5 → 6 sequence reads as "predict 6, maybe 7." If you've improved, make sure the recent evidence exists to prove it.
• IA drafts are evidence too. A strong draft, submitted on time, tells a teacher your final grade has a solid floor. Late, rushed drafts quietly cap predictions.
• Have the conversation early and directly. "What would you need to see from me to predict a 6?" is a completely fair question in September — and most teachers respect it. The same question after predictions are submitted is a complaint.

If you think a prediction is wrong

Ask for the reasoning before asking for the change. Bring evidence, not disappointment — a recent test, an improved IA draft. Schools can and do revise predictions when new evidence appears before submission; they almost never revise them because a student is unhappy. And if it truly won't move: remember predictions get you the offer, but finals keep it. A one-grade-underpredicted student with a strong May sits exactly where they were always going to sit.